Transcript: Trump Erupts in Panic as GOP Midterm Fears Grow: “Wipeout”

As Trump unravels on Truth Social and GOP alarm worsens, a progressive data researcher explains the deeper reasons voters are so dissatisfied right now—especially in red states with big Senate races.

The following is a lightly edited transcript of the September 29 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.

Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.

We’re a little more than a month out from the midterms, and the GOP leaks of panic and fear are unlike anything we’ve seen in some time. Words like “wipeout” are filling press reports. When a GOP pollster privately told Republicans things might be OK, he was mocked by Republicans themselves as delusional. Trump himself has erupted repeatedly in the last few days in an angry panic about what’s coming. But all this bad news for Trump and the GOP is getting us nervous about Democratic and liberal overconfidence.

So to see where voters really are right now, we’re checking in with Melissa Toufanian, the executive director of the progressive group Navigator Research, which has done interesting polling lately on public sentiment about Trump. Melissa, thanks for coming on.

Melissa Toufanian: Thanks so much for having me.

Sargent: So let’s start with some of these leaks. One Iowa Republican strategist told The Washington Post that this midterm could rival the Dem rout in 2006, saying, “it feels like it could be a wipeout.” Lots of stuff like that coming out of Iowa.

Melissa, that’s striking. Trump carried Iowa by double digits. It’s heavily rural. What do you make of those Republicans’ fears?

Toufanian: It’s funny to hear that, because I was just in Iowa a few weeks ago, and I sat down with two different focus groups with farmers. So these farmers were mostly lean Republicans, strong Republicans. Almost all of them voted for Trump. And what we heard from them is that Trump’s tariffs, and the market volatility caused by those tariffs, is a huge pain point for them.

I mean, they were really upset about diesel prices. If we’re looking at diesel prices now, we’re looking at a cost per gallon of over six dollars and fifty cents. What we heard from them is that’s up more than three dollars from last year. And what that translates to for Iowa farmers, and farmers across the country, is they’re going to be spending thousands of dollars more this harvest season, which is right around the corner, running combines and working in their fields. So that’s a huge pain point that even Trump supporters, Trump voters, are feeling.

Sargent: And are these Trump voters who are speaking to you guys in focus groups, are they blaming Trump for the situation? What’s the nuance there?

Toufanian: It’s a great question. It was mixed. So again, the groups being more lean to strong Republicans, I mean, some were defending Trump. Some said when it comes to tariffs—some said, you know, he’s playing 40 chess. He’s got this long-term plan, this idea of short-term pain. We’re paying higher costs now, but it’s going to be long-term gain. That these tariffs are going to even the playing field when it comes to trade.

So there was that group. But then there was a far more pessimistic group that said, like, I don’t think he has a plan. I don’t think there’s a grand strategy whatsoever. I’m just feeling it in my business, in my family’s expenses. All I’m getting are higher costs.

Sargent: And you probably don’t need much erosion among those people in order to make a real difference, but I want to come back to that. In a series of posts on Truth Social over the last couple days, Trump has really been losing it. I’m just going to read from one here.

First, he talks about how stupendous the economy is, then says:

“Because no one ever wants to give me credit, no one is talking about these Historic Numbers. The FAKE NEWS and DUMOCRATS hate these reports and these record-setting numbers. They hate the TRUTH. Just look at these numbers, THE BEST IN HISTORY. VOTE FOR REPUBLICAN AND ‘TRUMP’ CANDIDATES IN THE MIDTERMS.”

The stuff at the end there about voting for Republicans is in caps. He’s really, really, really starting to unravel, I think. Melissa, your outfit polled recently in a bunch of states that Trump carried by large margins. What did you find?

Toufanian: So we recently polled in Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas—four states with key battleground Senate races. And across all four states, which Trump won by double digits in 2024, he actually has a net approval of negative 14.

He’s underwater in each of those states. And looking at Iowa in particular, he is most underwater. He’s underwater by 17 points. So in states that helped him get back to the White House, people are now deeply pessimistic about how he’s handling the economy, his job overall as president, and especially the war with Iran.

He’s got 57 percent disapproval in Alaska, 58 percent disapproval in Iowa, 56 percent disapproval in Ohio, 56 percent disapproving in Texas.

Sargent: I think it’s worth underscoring how red that territory is. You know, this cycle is a weird one, where all of a sudden we’re talking about places like Iowa and Texas flipping. But that’s, like, really crazy.

OK, I mean, these are places that Trump won by huge margins. They are Republican states, they are red states. Melissa, can you talk about how long progressives have looked at states like these as being completely out of reach?

Toufanian: Yeah. And these........

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