If the Democrats Win These Three Senate Seats, an Earthquake Happened

The Trump-burdened GOP is suddenly playing defense in states they’ve barely had to for years. The reason: Some fighting Democrats have arrived on the scene.

If I said to you, “Quick, name three states with competitive Senate races,” I’m guessing you’d probably say Texas, Michigan, and Maine. Those are the three that get the most consistent media attention. Then, under those three, there are a number of races in red states where we know the Democrat either is generally ahead or has a great shot at winning—that’s North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and Nebraska (where the challenger is an independent, not a Democrat). Finally, there are a couple blue states where Democrats need to defend seats, and where the Democrat is usually ahead in polls, but they’re still very close and far from done deals: Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Then, there are three other states where something very interesting may be taking shape. They’re all deep red states. One was recently a purple state but has lately become a very MAGA shade of red. The second hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century. The third started the Civil War. And improbably enough, in all three states, the Democrat is tied or maybe even a smidge ahead. And if these results hold for seven weeks, I’ll be watching these three especially closely on November 3.

Let’s start with, believe it or not, South Carolina. A poll came out in early September showing Democrat Annie Andrews narrowly leading Darline Graham, who was named to the seat when brother Lindsey died in July. Graham, as you’ll recall, then narrowly won the GOP primary after being forced into a run-off. The reason it wasn’t a clean succession is that she made a fool of herself at a debate by saying national security “is not my thing.” Andrews is a pediatrician who’s been campaigning aggressively on affordability and health care. She came out for a two-year moratorium on data centers.

She is 45 and comes across as affable, smart, and very normal. She cut an ad with her father, a Republican, who said he’s crossing party lines on this one (“Annie’s not some crazy socialist!” Dad avers). Graham is counter-punching on, of course,........

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