Democrats Want to Party Like It’s 2006

Two decades ago, Republicans lost the House and Senate in a dramatic election. There may be similar political conditions in 2026.

Twenty years ago, a blue wave washed across the country, as favorable political conditions allowed Democrats to earn majorities in both chambers of Congress and gain control of several governors’ mansions. Their success was spurred by voter frustration with the second term of Republican President George W. Bush and his unpopular war in the Middle East, as well as concerns over the economy and rising energy costs.

It’s a story that today’s Democrats would love to rerun, and which Republicans fear to repeat. On the surface, the conditions seem similar: President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are nearly 20 points underwater; the national average for the price of gas is more than $4 per gallon; and the war in Iran is little liked by the public.

But it’s unlikely that Democrats will see the kind of blue wave they experienced two decades ago, even with favorable conditions. In 2006, Democrats netted six new Senate seats and gained 31 seats in the House of Representatives. It’s hard to imagine such a sweeping victory this November, in part because there are fewer competitive swing seats than there have been in elections past.

In the House, this is partially due to partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts. Republicans are particularly skilled in this arena: According to the Cook Political Report, there was a 70 percent drop in swing seats in states with GOP redistricting control between 1997 and 2023. These fights have only become more rabid, with a slate of states undertaking mid-decade redistricting efforts in response to urgings from Trump—a practice recently empowered by the Supreme Court’s decision diluting the power of racial minority voters.

“Redistricting was a factor in our elections 20 years ago, but the parties have gotten better at drawing the lines, and have reduced the number of seats that are........

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