Holding roughly 145 billion barrels of proved crude reserves, Iraq ranks among the world’s major petroleum powers, yet its electricity system still comes under severe strain each summer. In 2024, available peak supply stood at about 25 GW, against roughly 48 GW needed to meet summer peak demand, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The mismatch reflects less a shortage of energy resources than decades of weak gas capture, inefficient generation and exceptionally high transmission and distribution losses.

The weakness begins inside the grid. The International Energy Agency estimates Iraq’s transmission and distribution losses at around 50–60 per cent, among the highest in the world. Ageing infrastructure explains part of the problem, but technical losses are compounded by weak metering, poor tariff collection and unauthorised consumption.

The weakness begins inside the grid. The International Energy Agency estimates Iraq’s transmission and distribution losses at around 50–60 per cent, among the highest in the world. Ageing infrastructure explains part of the problem, but technical losses are compounded by weak metering, poor tariff collection and unauthorised consumption.

A new generation therefore enters a system that is itself unable to deliver electricity efficiently to consumers.

Fuel use exposes another distortion. The EIA estimates that Iraqi power stations burned an average of around 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day in 2023 because natural gas supply was insufficient. For a state whose public finances depend heavily on petroleum exports, using exportable crude........

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