Pakistani Airstrikes in Afghanistan: Civilian Casualties and the Mecca Pact Distraction
On 1 October 2026, Pakistan again carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan, this time targeting areas in Kunar and Helmand provinces. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) confirmed that at least 10 civilians were killed, most of them children, and nine others were injured. Afghan authorities said three civilian homes were struck. Pakistan, however, said the attacks were based on credible intelligence and targeted hideouts belonging to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), claiming that 22 militants were killed.
The latest attacks came only a week after Pakistan’s air force struck ten locations in Kandahar, Paktia and Khost on 24 September, killing four civilians according to Afghan authorities, and just days after earlier strikes in Kunar and Paktika in which the UN confirmed three civilian deaths.
Islamabad has repeatedly described its attacks as deliberate, precise and proportionate, presenting them as necessary responses to militant attacks and threats allegedly originating from Afghan territory. Yet the growing civilian toll and continuing deterioration of Pakistan’s own security situation raise serious questions about that justification. These strikes appear to serve two additional political goals for Islamabad that go beyond its stated counterterrorism strategy against the TTP: avoiding the difficult commitments Pakistan faces under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement and diverting attention from Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir’s failure to contain the worsening security situation inside Pakistan.
The record of the past year provides enough evidence to judge Pakistan’s air campaign by its results rather than its stated intentions. Between October 2025 and September 2026, Pakistan carried out repeated air and drone strikes inside Afghanistan, targeting Kabul and the provinces of Kandahar, Kunar, Khost, Nangarhar, Paktia and Paktika. The October strikes have now extended that campaign into Helmand as well.
The civilian cost has been severe. Between 26 January and 31 March alone, the United Nations recorded 764 civilian casualties from hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan: 372 people killed and 392 injured. By late September, UNAMA said cross-border armed violence had caused more than 1,100 civilian deaths and injuries in Afghanistan during 2026. The October 1 strikes provided another grim reminder of that toll, with the UN once again confirming civilian deaths, most of them children.
The deadliest incident occurred on 16 March, when Pakistani airstrikes hit the Omid Drug Rehabilitation and Treatment Centre in Kabul. UNAMA later verified that at least 269 civilians were killed and 122 injured, most of them patients. Amnesty International found no evidence supporting Pakistan’s assertion that the centre was being........
