Competing declarations of victory from Washington and Tehran accompanied the announcement of the ceasefire. However, as the talks commence, strategic planners on both sides will be fervently taking stock of their gains and losses while preparing for possible re-initiation of hostilities. Since 28 February, it is estimated that the US and Israel have hit more than 13,000 targets in Iran, specifically the military echelons initially, and later 800 strikes against key defence industrial infrastructure,[1] including railways, roads and bridges.

The US has claimed crippling strikes on nuclear facilities of Iran, destruction of 80 per cent of AD weapon systems and missile launch capabilities, 150 naval vessels and 20 naval production facilities, 90 per cent of weapon production facilities, 80 per cent of nuclear industrial base, 2000 C2 nodes, 800 drone storage and solid propellant production facilities. The strikes also destroyed the Iranian Space Research Centre, as well as its oil production facilities at Kharg, South Pars (80 per cent of oil production), the Port at Mahshahr SEZ, the Lavan Island oil refinery, and the Sirri Island crude export facility, significantly degrading Iran’s economic capacity. The human cost, besides the early loss of their Supreme Leader, includes 40–45 senior leaders of the government, hundreds of tactical commanders and an estimated 1,700 civilian casualties.[2] Attacks on healthcare facilities, civilian infrastructure and displacement may also result in a humanitarian crisis for Iran.

Iran also escalated the conflict both horizontally and vertically, causing noteworthy losses for the US and its allies in the region. The approximate cost estimates have ranged from US$ 33 billion to US$ 42 billion to date. The US has incurred losses of four THAAD systems out of eight available globally; USS Gerald R. Ford was made inoperable between 12 March and 6 April; an estimated 21 aircraft were destroyed, worth US$ 2.8 billion; and 13 US bases were targeted, making them uninhabitable.[3]

Iran also targeted the Gulf countries’ oil/gas production facilities, ports and even aluminium plants. The key installations sustaining major damage include Ruwais, Habshan, Shah, Das Island (LNG), Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khor Fakkan, Al Taweelah in the UAE, Ras Tanura, Samref, Shaybah, Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, Bapco Energies, Gulf Petrochemical Industries, Alba, Khalifa Bin Salman in Bahrain, Sohar, Mina Al Fahal, Salalah ports in Oman, Ras Laffan in Qatar, Kuwait National Petroleum, Mina Al-Ahmadi, Mina Abdullah in Kuwait and Lanaz, Majnoon, in Iraq.[4] Many of these may take 5–7 years to be restored to full capacity.

Both sides remain wary of each other, and with changing war objectives of the US throughout the campaign, mere assurance through another agreement will not be adequate. As Iran seeks permanent guarantees in the region, it is aware that the US wants a quick settlement and exit,........

© IDSA