Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

It’s been over a year since I wrote anything lengthy about the war in Ukraine, and I regret the omission. Other events have captured my attention, alas, even though the conflict is a continuing tragedy and is still casting a significant shadow over events elsewhere. Our fearless leader Ravi Agrawal’s recent account of his visit brought my attention back and led me to reflect on where the conflict is today and what might be done to bring it to an end after nearly five years.

Anyone who approaches this topic should do so with humility, for no one has gotten everything right. I didn’t think Russian President Vladimir Putin would invade in 2022, for example, because I thought such a step would be a blunder and leave Russia worse off in the long run. I still think I was right about that, but obviously wrong about Putin’s calculations. Since then, legions of policymakers and pundits have repeatedly failed to see where things were going, ping-ponging between unrealistic optimism and doom-and-gloom defeatism. And the people in charge are no better: Putin miscalculated in thinking the war would be over in a few days, the Biden administration misjudged the effectiveness of sanctions, and Ukraine’s leaders erred when they launched a disastrous counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. U.S. President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he didn’t “have the cards” and pressed him to cut an unfavorable deal, only to be surprised when a combination of European support and Ukrainian innovation and heroism turned the tide back temporarily. But as Ravi noted, the fortunes of war seem to be shifting back toward Moscow as winter approaches. Wise readers will therefore take everyone’s analysis and advice with a degree of skepticism—including mine.

It’s been over a year since I wrote anything lengthy about the war in Ukraine, and I regret the omission. Other events have captured my attention, alas, even though the conflict is a continuing tragedy and is still casting a significant shadow over events elsewhere. Our fearless leader Ravi Agrawal’s recent account of his visit brought my attention back and led me to reflect on where the conflict is today and what might be done to bring it to an end after nearly five years.

Anyone who approaches this topic should do so with humility, for no one has gotten everything right. I didn’t think Russian President Vladimir Putin would invade in 2022, for example, because I thought such a step would be a blunder and leave Russia worse off in the long run. I still think I was right about that, but obviously wrong about Putin’s calculations. Since then, legions of policymakers and pundits have repeatedly failed to see where things were going, ping-ponging between unrealistic optimism and doom-and-gloom defeatism. And the people in charge are no better: Putin miscalculated in thinking the war would be over in a few days, the Biden administration misjudged the effectiveness of........

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