Across Cukurova, the alluvial plain in southern Turkey that lines the easternmost inlet of the Mediterranean Sea, farmers till land so fertile that it bears three harvests a year. Rivers feed cash crops of cotton, corn, wheat, sunflowers, rapeseed, and soybean; the muggy climate warms greenhouses filled with tomatoes, bananas, and avocados; and the mineral-rich soil supports a wide array of produce—citrus, peanuts, lemons, olives, pomegranates, watermelon, and more.

It is also, however, a key node in a newly vital route for oil otherwise blocked by the wars in Ukraine and Iran. The Fertile Crescent’s last great expanse of farmland spared by centuries of drought, war, and mismanagement is now vulnerable as Turkey moves to accommodate some 850,000 extra barrels of oil per day, with plans for much more.

Across Cukurova, the alluvial plain in southern Turkey that lines the easternmost inlet of the Mediterranean Sea, farmers till land so fertile that it bears three harvests a year. Rivers feed cash crops of cotton, corn, wheat, sunflowers, rapeseed, and soybean; the muggy climate warms greenhouses filled with tomatoes, bananas, and avocados; and the mineral-rich soil supports a wide array of produce—citrus, peanuts, lemons, olives, pomegranates, watermelon, and more.

It is also, however, a key node in a newly vital route for oil otherwise blocked by the wars in Ukraine and Iran. The Fertile Crescent’s last great expanse of farmland spared by centuries of drought, war, and mismanagement is now vulnerable as Turkey moves to accommodate some 850,000 extra barrels of oil per day, with plans for much more.

Existing oil and industrial facilities have already displaced many of Cukurova’s farmers and fishers. But the expansion underway could complete the plain’s transition from an area that can still live off its arable land and abundant waters—now a luxury in the drought-strained region—to an energy shipping and petrochemical hub. Not only could these industries nearly replace farming; they could permanently alter the land and water that sustain it, making it unfeasible for it to ever return.

A worker harvests cotton in the Cukurova district of Adana, Turkey, on Sept. 12, 2019. Ibrahim Erikan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The center of this transformation is Ceyhan, a district in Adana province with a stretch of villages along the coastline. Known for having some of the most productive farmland in Cukurova, Ceyhan also hosts one of the Mediterranean’s busiest energy ports, where two major crude oil pipelines terminate: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which routes from Azerbaijan through Georgia, and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which brings oil from northern Iraq. In recent months, with Ukrainian drones striking Russian pipelines and Iraqi oil vessels blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, Turkey’s pipelines have offered an alternative to traditional export routes.

Other countries, including Israel, Romania, and Syria, claim that they will be able to bypass these blockages, but the alternative pipelines, both existing and planned, connecting to the Mediterranean or to the Black Sea are low volume, unsafe, or unrealistic. Ceyhan, at least, has two active pipelines that are cheaper and faster than other current options.

“I don’t think that there is a transit route or a hub that is entirely risk-free,” said Carole Nakhle, an energy economist and the founder of Crystol Energy, a British advisory firm. “That’s one area where Turkey perhaps has an advantage.”

!function(e,n,i,s){var d="InfogramEmbeds";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var........

© Foreign Policy