In the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, it quickly became clear that the trajectory of the conflict would be unpredictable. Consider how much has already happened in a military operation that started on Feb. 28: After Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, Iran launched missiles across the region, including at hotels and airports. Seven U.S. servicemembers have died, and Kuwait accidently shot down three U.S. F-15 jets. Gas prices have skyrocketed and stock prices plummeted. Trump announced that the war would continue for many more weeks—at a minimum. These early days have been an unsettling reminder that predicting how military conflicts unfolds is a fool’s errand.

The New York Times reported that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, had warned the administration that the conflict would be much more complicated and dangerous than many top officials anticipated. Although the swift success in capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro evidently bolstered Trump’s confidence in what U.S. forces could achieve with ease, Iran is no Venezuela.

In the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, it quickly became clear that the trajectory of the conflict would be unpredictable. Consider how much has already happened in a military operation that started on Feb. 28: After Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, Iran launched missiles across the region, including at hotels and airports. Seven U.S. servicemembers have died, and Kuwait accidently shot down three U.S. F-15 jets. Gas prices have skyrocketed and stock prices plummeted. Trump announced that the war would continue for many more weeks—at a minimum. These early days have been an unsettling reminder that predicting how military conflicts unfolds is a fool’s errand.

The New York Times reported that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, had warned the administration that the conflict would be much more complicated and dangerous than many top officials anticipated. Although the swift success in capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro evidently bolstered Trump’s confidence in what U.S. forces could achieve with ease, Iran is no Venezuela.

Any time a U.S. president deploys U.S. forces overseas, it is worth revisiting one of the most influential books about the U.S. war in Vietnam: The Best and the Brightest by David Halberstam. The book serves as an enduring reminder of the mistakes presidents and their advisors have made when sending the U.S. military into harm’s way, always with the promise of acting in the nation’s best interests.

Vietnam was a historic military and political disaster. The United........

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