At the start of the year, Thailand’s Department of Health held a press conference under the ominous title, “Every Birth Matters… When the Silent Countdown Begins.” Officials said that in 2025, deaths in the country had exceeded births by nearly 140,000, and that if current trends held, the population could halve in the next 50 years. A director-general from the department warned that the decline could affect Thailand’s economy, tax base, and even government stability.

In a statement in July, the National Savings Fund, which handles public pensions, echoed this alarm. It described declining births as a “warning sign,” as a contracting labor force puts pressure on the welfare system and forces “everyone to rely more on themselves.” Other officials have said that working-aged people will be forced to shoulder a greater burden to support an elderly population, which could lead to an increase in the retirement age.

At the start of the year, Thailand’s Department of Health held a press conference under the ominous title, “Every Birth Matters… When the Silent Countdown Begins.” Officials said that in 2025, deaths in the country had exceeded births by nearly 140,000, and that if current trends held, the population could halve in the next 50 years. A director-general from the department warned that the decline could affect Thailand’s economy, tax base, and even government stability.

In a statement in July, the National Savings Fund, which handles public pensions, echoed this alarm. It described declining births as a “warning sign,” as a contracting labor force puts pressure on the welfare system and forces “everyone to rely more on themselves.” Other officials have said that working-aged people will be forced to shoulder a greater burden to support an elderly population, which could lead to an increase in the retirement age.

Thailand’s sharply declining birth rate follows a pattern often attributed to rising costs of living and women attaining higher levels of education. However, the demographic crisis has arrived in upper-middle-income Thailand early compared to elsewhere in the global south. The country’s fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman places it near Italy, Singapore, Spain, and South Korea—economies with four to 11 times Thailand’s per capita GDP.

South Korea’s fertility rate first dropped below 2.1 births per woman—generally seen as replacement level—in 1984, as its economy was growing rapidly. Thailand, by comparison, is in a period of prolonged economic stagnation. Birth rates are declining across Southeast Asia, but those of Thailand and Singapore are the lowest in the region. Of the 11 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian........

© Foreign Policy