Despite its small size, Singapore demonstrates that size does not matter. Despite being resource-poor and having limited land territory, it has emerged as a key player in Southeast Asia and an influential middle power globally. As a player in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Singapore demonstrates how economic strength, clever diplomacy, and an exceptional talent pool enable a small state to pack a significant punch. But with ASEAN’s limitations and great power rivalry unfolding, Singapore faces a serious test. Its future hangs by a thread. 

Since its inception, Singapore has been ASEAN’s central player. As one of the founding members in 1967, it helped lock in place the principles of non-interference and consensus-driven solutions that underpin the organisation to this day. Such a system suited Singapore’s precarious position as a small state in a region dominated by larger rivals. But it has worked well for all other Southeast Asian nations, too. Over time, Singapore has emerged as ASEAN’s economic hub, leveraging its well-developed infrastructure, financial sector, and established trade networks to drive intra-ASEAN connections. Its role as a key player in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) demonstrates a deep commitment to using ASEAN as a platform for economic integration. Through initiatives like promoting sustainability and smart cities, Singapore has ensured ASEAN’s relevance as a dialogue partner on sustainability issues in global governance processes.

Diplomatically, Singapore is a facilitator extraordinaire. Its pragmatic approach enables mediation among ASEAN’s diverse members. The respect it builds with external partners amplifies its collective impact on the world stage. By hosting ASEAN summits and dialogues with key players in global politics, Singapore ensures ASEAN remains central to regional diplomacy processes. By actively engaging in ASEAN-led initiatives such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus, it promotes cooperation among stakeholders on security concerns like terrorism and maritime security challenges.

With ASEAN, Singapore demonstrates its middle power credentials by practising strategic balancing. It has built close relationships with key powers like the United States and China, yet it avoids being drawn into their rivalry. This carefully crafted diplomatic posture is Singapore’s preferred framework because it remains committed to an open rules-based international system. By supporting international law, freedom of navigation in contentious maritime regions like the South China Sea, and multilateral governance systems, a small state like Singapore aims to promote stability in hotspots around the world. 

Aside from its diplomatic efforts, Singapore also uses soft power and coalition diplomacy to build its influence in international affairs. Its governance model, technological advances, and institutions of higher learning are all excellent examples of Singapore’s soft power assets. The National University of Singapore (NUS) has become a hub for academic talent from Southeast Asia and beyond. However, Singapore’s exceptional human resources are the most significant factors behind its success. After decades of strategic planning and investments in education and meritocratic systems, Singapore built a skilful workforce capable of sustaining its status as a top-tier financial hub. Its expertise in skills development enables Singapore to project its influence beyond its national borders as a trusted partner in various initiatives. Its collaboration with other middle powers like Australia, South Korea, and various European Union (EU) member nations has allowed it to build coalitions or unite diverse groups to build a more unified voice for middle-ranking powers on global issues. Its membership in multilateral organisations such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) illustrates Singapore’s active involvement in shaping economic diplomacy processes outside Southeast Asia.

Clouds are gathering on the horizon for Singapore. The rivalry between Washington and Beijing will likely compromise Singapore’s neutral balancing act. For now, its close relationship with both powers has allowed it to enjoy diplomatic flexibility. However, the risk of Singapore becoming a pawn in this rivalry is growing by the day. The ASEAN framework Singapore operates in poses another significant threat. Singapore’s consensus-driven approach to governance can severely limit ASEAN’s effectiveness when crisis scenarios arise. Singapore’s efforts to build coalition-style action plans in response to emergencies will likely fall flat if the organisation’s traditional approach remains unchanged. Internally, Singapore faces another hurdle: despite being governed by an exceptional human resources system, it faces an eternal challenge in ensuring its citizens keep developing their skill sets so they remain relevant in a fast-paced technological age. Singapore’s small population and limited financial reserves pose significant obstacles to overcoming this hurdle. However, the exceptional skills its citizens display should enable the country’s leadership to focus on developing sustainable solutions that will assist them in overcoming these challenges.

The road ahead appears challenging. To ensure its resilience in this new and uncertain geopolitical landscape, Singapore needs to look for ways to improve its resilience. On the international stage, Singapore can advocate for reforms that will ensure ASEAN has sufficient institutional capacity to manage crises requiring swift action. This does not mean abandoning the group’s bedrock principle of consensus-driven processes. Yet by setting up issue-specific coalitions within ASEAN organisations, Singapore can help its partners address urgent issues affecting member states while it continues to build coalitions of partners with shared goals beyond the organisation. To avoid facing challenges linked to rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, Singapore should diversify its diplomatic partners on the international stage by engaging with all middle-ranking nations committed to strengthening cooperation on pressing global issues. Beyond Asia or the Pacific region, these partners can be in Europe, Africa, or the Middle East.

On a domestic front, Singapore must refocus on sustaining its position as a hub for innovative talent and skilful professionals who can keep pace with technological breakthroughs and rapidly evolving global issues. One way for Singapore to achieve this goal is by focusing on its primary asset: human capital. By developing a focus on reorienting its national development strategy around building sustainability-oriented infrastructure, it can ensure its citizens keep developing skill sets necessary for success in an evolving climate-sensitive world. The country can also keep projecting soft power outward through initiatives like developing programs that allow higher learning institutions in Asia to adopt Singapore’s governance framework for efficient management, thus strengthening their resilience. Singapore’s record as a pragmatic ally is similarly one of reliability and efficiency. Its contributions to ASEAN’s economic integration, security frameworks, and innovation agenda have reinforced ASEAN’s importance, while its diplomacy in areas such as AI and sustainability demonstrates the promise of middle-power coalitions. The road ahead will be harder; coping with the impact of the great-power rivalry and ASEAN’s institutional weaknesses will be a strain. By strengthening ASEAN’s capabilities, broadening its partnerships, investing in innovation, and leveraging its uniquely endowed human capital, Singapore can continue to manage its balancing act and influence developments in the region and beyond. In a turbulent world, Singapore offers a fascinating example of how small states can thrive through good planning and a disciplined approach.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

Institute for Economics & Peace. (2026). The Great Fragmentation: The rise of middle powers in a fractured international order. Institute for Economics & Peace. 

Liow, J. C. (2025). Southeast Asia in the face of intensifying great power rivalry. Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. 

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