Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have launched a campaign against Iran with maximalist aims and minimalist means. They speak the language of regime change, but the political, military, and social preconditions are not present. The result will not be transformation in Tehran, but a high-risk spiral toward open-ended war that may engulf the region and end in strategic failure.

Successful regime change from without requires an organized, legitimate opposition capable of stepping into the vacuum. Iran has nothing of the kind. The opposition is fragmented, mistrustful, and poorly coordinated, especially between activists inside the country and the diaspora. There is no unified command, coherent program, or agreed transitional leadership around which a national movement can rally.

The 2025–26 protests, though large and courageous, lacked centralized leadership capable of translating street mobilization into an organized bid for power. Prominent figures such as Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi are in prison, while key exiled personalities like Reza Pahlavi are rejected and unable to command nationwide allegiance.

In this context, calls from Trump for Iranians to “rise up” are largely rhetorical. They seem to ignore the fact that authoritarian incumbents gain when contenders remain fragmented, as divisions and weakened coordination can strengthen the regime’s endurance. Without a reliable alternative center of power, external pressure is more likely to produce internal repression than revolution.

Regime Change Without Boots on the Ground

The second illusion is that air and naval power alone can topple a hardened regime and usher in a new order. Experience in Iraq and Afghanistan shows that even where regimes were rapidly overthrown, the absence of sustained, large-scale stabilization forces produced vacuums, insurgencies, and prolonged conflict, not liberal democracy aligned with Western preferences.

Trump does not intend to deploy the kind of ground forces and long-term peacebuilding apparatus required to manage a post–Islamic Republic transition. Tactical........

© Eurasia Review