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Middle East Security Architecture from Oil to AI

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In the age of artificial intelligence (AI), the concept of war is no longer confined to the conquest of territories or the defeat of rival nations. It increasingly revolves around the struggle to control the strategic resources, technological infrastructure, and economic networks that sustain global power. As AI reshapes the international order, the central challenge for the United States is to preserve its global hegemony by maintaining technological superiority and controlling the critical resources on which this new era of innovation depends. For the Global South, this transition raises a fundamental concern: whether the AI revolution will democratise technological progress or reinforce the existing inequalities between the developed and developing worlds.

The emergence of AI as a transformative technology represents a paradigm shift following the digital revolution of the early twenty-first century. While the digital revolution connected societies through the internet, mobile communications, and digital platforms, AI is transforming the production of knowledge, economic activity, military capabilities, and state power. The United States has positioned itself at the forefront of this transformation, with technology companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic playing prominent roles in the development of advanced AI systems. However, technological leadership alone does not guarantee lasting dominance. Sustaining it requires access to the resources, energy supplies, semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, computing infrastructure, and supply chains essential to the global AI ecosystem.

The transition from oil-driven geopolitics to AI-centred competition does not mean that energy has lost its strategic importance.

The transition from oil-driven geopolitics to AI-centred competition does not mean that energy has lost its strategic importance.

History offers a compelling parallel. The industrial revolutions transformed not only economies but also the geopolitical calculations of major powers. As industrial production expanded in Europe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, access to energy, raw materials, markets, and strategic territories became increasingly important to the pursuit of national power. World War I and World War II were driven by multiple political,........

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