For a data-driven number cruncher of the highest order, Nate Silver is refreshingly honest in admitting his skepticism about the Senate candidacy of Texas Democrat James Talarico is a “gut” hunch that may even reflect a bit of superstition. In a piece this week, Silver went through all the reasons his election model rates Talarico as a slight favorite over Republican Ken Paxton and refuted some misconceptions about the Texas Senate race (e.g., that recent Democratic Senate losers like Beto O’Rourke did just as well in polls as Talarico).

“Would I still be surprised if Talarico carries Texas a few months from now? Absolutely,” Silver concluded. “I just don’t know that you ought to give that gut feeling much weight.”

This is a common feeling among political observers and, particularly, Democrats. In recent years, the prospect of turning Texas blue has seemed tantalizingly close yet always just out of reach. Democrats can’t help but keep hoping as the state is so large (with 40 electoral votes) and so significant both economically and culturally. And there are many aspects of Texas........

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