Photo by Liosha Shyp

The nightmare scenario

It is the nightmare climate scenario, the one that causes some to throw up their hands with a sense of inevitable doom. The hothouse Earth, where climate tipping points have been triggered and forces unleashed that drive global heating beyond human control. Where Earth’s temperature remains at levels not seen for millions of years for centuries, disrupting human civilization and possibly collapsing it. In the more extreme versions, the human species goes extinct or suffers dramatic population dieback.

But how likely is it? How close are we to the climate point of return? Have we already crossed the line? If not, how do we stop it? These rank as the most important questions facing humanity now. So I reached out to the lead author of a peer-reviewed scientific article published this past February that received too little attention, as is typical for this whole topic, “The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory,” William J. Ripple, a professor of ecology at Oregon State University. Ripple is known as the lead author of the November 2017, “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice” signed by over 15,000, and the “World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency” in 2019 and 2021. He is currently seeking sign-ons for a new declaration, including one that can be signed by ordinary people. Link at end of article.

I put this question to Ripple: “If I might ask a personal question, from one who has grappled with these difficult issues to another, how do you sustain hope? I know people who have been crushed by these realities, who believe we are inevitably on track to the hothouse, who have basically given up. I regard that as a self-fulfilling prophecy. You obviously have not given up, and are calling to action. Why are you not a doomist?”

Key points from the article

Before I give Ripple’s answer, let me review the warning in his recent article. First, the abstract: “Earth’s climate is now departing from the stable conditions that supported human civilization for millennia. Crossing critical temperature thresholds may trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks and tipping dynamics that amplify warming and destabilize distant Earth system components. Uncertain tipping thresholds make precaution essential, as crossing them could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory with........

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