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The Cost of War Comes Due Before the Ballot

4 0
05.10.2026

On September 29, the Energy Department said it would make up to 40 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve available through an exchange intended to stabilize oil supply. The move was a reminder of something easy to miss in debates over the Iran war: Its costs do not stay on the battlefield. American households can start paying them well before voters get a chance to judge the decisions behind them.

War is usually pictured through missiles, airstrikes, casualties, and ruined cities. Yet some of the burden can surface thousands of miles from the fighting—in gas prices, shipping costs, grocery bills, and whatever is left in a family’s bank account at the end of the month.

The war with Iran has made that connection hard to ignore. When oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shock moves through global energy markets and reaches the United States. In September, the International Energy Agency reported that US diesel-gasoil prices had surpassed $200 a barrel in early September, 94% above prewar levels. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) later put average retail diesel at $6.29 a gallon on September 14.

Someone carrying the cost in a gas bill, heating bill, or grocery receipt did not necessarily have any meaningful say in the decision that created it.

Diesel is more than another number at the pump. Trucks run on it. Farms rely on it. Factories and shipping companies use it. The EIA notes that diesel prices reflect crude oil costs, refining margins, distribution expenses, taxes, and global supply conditions. It also warns that disruptions to major oil trade routes can bring shortages, shipping delays, and higher petroleum prices. Once fuel gets more expensive, the increase moves through the supply chain.

For some families, the effect is more direct. If your home is heated with fuel, the war can appear on the heating bill. A household with no one fighting—and no direct voice in the decision to go to war—can still pay part of the price from its own paycheck.

Those costs are not shared evenly. A higher energy bill may be manageable for one household and a serious strain for another. Department of Energy data show that the national average energy burden for low-income households is about three times that of non-low-income households. Families already spending most of their income on housing, food, and transportation have much less room to absorb another increase.

This is part of war’s cost that a military budget does not capture. Brown University’s Costs of War project estimated in May that higher gasoline and diesel prices since the start of the Iran War had already imposed more than $40 billion in additional costs on American consumers—more than $300 per household.

The burden takes different forms, but it runs through ordinary society. Soldiers pay with their bodies. Taxpayers finance military operations.........

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