Brazil will hold presidential elections on October 4 in a polarized race that — according to polls — will come down to a choice between the continuation of center-left President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s model or a return to the far-right under Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula (80) has been governing Brazil since he took over from Bolsonaro in January 2023. A member of the progressive, labor-focused Workers’ Party, he also ruled the country between 2003 and 2010 and is now seeking a fourth term in office.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (45) is the current leader of the country’s conservative Liberal Party, under which his father ruled between 2018 and 2022.

Former President Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for his role in a plot to overturn the 2022 election results and assassinate Lula.

Almost 159 million people will be eligible to vote in this election through an electronic system. In addition to electing a new president and vice president, Brazilians will also renew the lower house in its entirety and two-thirds of the Senate.

They will also elect new governors for the country’s 26 states plus Brasília, the capital city.

Brazil’s next president and vice president will begin their term on January 1, 2027, and rule until December 2030.

Polls, however, are predicting that it is unlikely that winners will be decided on October 4. In Brazil, candidates running for executive office need at least 50% of the vote to win outright.

If none of them reach or surpass this limit, there will be a runoff on October 25. 

Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo, told the Herald that the election is taking place against a backdrop of a slowing economy and a growing sense of insecurity.

“The market projects growth of around 1.9%, inflation near 5%, and a Selic rate [the benchmark interest rate for the Brazilian economy] of 13.75%, meaning activity is being dampened by the cost of money, even though unemployment........

© Buenos Aires Herald