The withdrawal of American and other international forces from Iraq comes at a particularly fragile moment for a country still working to consolidate its sovereignty, strengthen state institutions and escape the cycles of conflict that have shaped much of its modern history.

The departure of US forces inevitably raises questions about what comes next. Iraq has spent years attempting to rebuild its political institutions and assert independent decision-making after decades of dictatorship, war, sanctions, occupation and sectarian violence. The central challenge now is whether Baghdad can preserve that independence or whether the military and political vacuum created by the withdrawal will increase Tehran’s influence over Iraq’s internal affairs.

Iran has long maintained significant political, economic and security relationships inside Iraq. Those relationships are neither new nor necessarily incompatible with Iraqi sovereignty. Iran is Iraq’s neighbor, and geography makes close engagement between the two countries unavoidable. The critical question, however, is whether bilateral relations remain relations between sovereign states or evolve into a system in which one country exercises disproportionate influence over the other’s political and security decisions.

That concern is particularly significant because of Iran’s broader regional model. In Lebanon and Yemen, Tehran has cultivated relationships with powerful armed movements operating outside conventional state structures. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen demonstrate how armed organizations can become deeply embedded in national political systems while maintaining independent military capabilities and close ties with Iran.

Iraq faces a different political and historical reality, but the underlying challenge is familiar: the state must remain the ultimate authority over weapons, security policy and national decision-making.

For Iraq, therefore, the period following the American withdrawal should not become a contest to determine which outside power fills the resulting space. It should instead become an opportunity for Baghdad to reinforce the authority of national institutions.

Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s call for weapons to be held exclusively by the state represents an important element of that........

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