The changing tone of the Moscow Format on Afghanistan is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. What began as a regional diplomatic mechanism aimed at encouraging an Afghan political settlement and addressing the security concerns of Afghanistan’s neighbors appears to be moving toward a different purpose: accommodation of the Taliban regime.

The failure of the latest Moscow Format meeting, held on Oct. 5, to produce a joint statement is particularly revealing. The Taliban reportedly objected to language relating to terrorism and Afghanistan’s obligations toward neighboring countries. This is significant because the language under discussion was not fundamentally new. Similar concerns about terrorism emanating from Afghan territory have figured in earlier Moscow Format statements. Russia’s special envoy, Zamir Kabulov, attributed the failure to a disagreement between the Afghan and Pakistani delegations, while acknowledging that similar wording had appeared in the previous statement. The Taliban’s refusal to accept even previously agreed language therefore raises questions about how far the regime is prepared to go in accommodating regional concerns.

More important than the failure of the joint statement, however, was the broader political context. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s description of the Taliban authorities as a “national government,” coupled with his positive assessment of their governance, reflects an unmistakable change in tone. In July 2025, Russia became the first country to formally recognize the Taliban government. The question, therefore, is no longer whether Russia will engage the Taliban, but how far Moscow is now prepared to go in actively strengthening the regime.

This development becomes particularly significant when viewed alongside India’s growing presence in Kabul. New Delhi has made considerable diplomatic inroads into Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, gradually rebuilding its diplomatic and political engagement with the regime. Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of........

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