As soon as the networks declared Donald Trump the winner of the 2024 presidential election, attention shifted to 2028. Most of the focus so far has been on the Democrats. Which, when you think about it, makes sense.

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For one thing, that’s where the action is. As the out party, their primary will be an open contest. Because it will be a wide-open race to once again succeed Trump, two dozen candidates may be underestimating the size of the field. It’s anticipated that the field will include many of the party’s biggest names, such as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and former Vice President Kamala Harris. But another reason, maybe the biggest, the Democrats have all the juice for 2028 is that the Republicans have none at all.

The GOP primary has seemed like a foregone conclusion since the day President Trump was sworn into office again. Sure, JD Vance is the sitting vice president, and when the incumbent vice president seeks the nomination, he invariably gets it. Vance, however, is no mere heir presumptive. He is the most lopsided favorite, the biggest lock, not since 2000 or even 1988, but maybe ever. That’s how he’s being treated, anyway. With a massive lead in the polls and more chatter now about prospective running mates than potential rivals for the nomination, he should be.

Yet just because the race feels like it’s over before it’s even begun, that doesn’t mean there won’t be one. Someone will challenge Vance for the Republican nomination, even if they have no shot at winning. The question is who. Who becomes the vessel that the GOP opposition will try to deploy in a kamikaze attack to sink the MAGA dreadnought and end its awful dominion over the party. Who, in other words, will be the Nikki Haley of 2028?

The first person we can rule out is Haley herself. Soon after she dropped out of the 2024 race, she accepted a sinecure with a D.C. think tank. She has scarcely been seen or heard from since.

Nor will it be Marco Rubio. The secretary of state has claimed he won’t run if Vance does. Moreover, there has been a great deal of scuttlebutt already that the two of them will form a ticket. No one has encouraged the notion more than their boss, who has repeatedly stated his preference that Rubio “get together with JD.” An unnamed adviser who’s discussed the matter with the president told Axios last month that Trump’s ideal ticket is Vance-Rubio — “and to be clear, that’s Vance on top.” 

Unless, that is, Trump knocks him down. At a Feb. 28 Mar-a-Lago fundraiser, Trump asked the crowd who they’d prefer he support. The 25 donors were almost unanimous for the nation’s top diplomat, one of the attendees told NBC News. Trump, the Wall Street Journal reported, has of late grown more enamored of Rubio, particularly as he has focused on foreign policy in 2026. For now, Vance retains the president’s favor. Given his notoriously wandering eye, there’s no guarantee Vance keeps it. Yet for Trump to abandon his vice president would, in some sense, be an admission that he chose poorly in selecting him. Would he really do that?

Perhaps he won’t have to. According to the Washington Post, Vance has said privately he’s still undecided about 2028. Usha Vance is expecting their fourth child this summer, and that may be giving him pause. Running for president with four children under 10 would be a considerable burden on him and his family. The circumstances, though, will never again be this favorable. You’re only the sitting vice president of a termed-out president once. The opportunity is simply too good to pass up. Which is why, ultimately, he almost certainly won’t. 

Another unlikely contender is Donald Trump Jr. He is popular with his father’s supporters and is a logical choice to be his father’s figurative and literal heir. Yet that idea has never attained critical mass. There’s been no clamor, no groundswell for Trump to pass his crown to his eldest........

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