President Donald Trump would be unwise to kill Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At least not as a first step in his anticipated upcoming military action.

This is not to say that Trump should entirely avoid striking Iran. Trump has thus far failed to enforce his red line against Iran’s slaughter of more than 10,000 of its own people during recent protests. If he does not order a punitive response to these atrocities, other adversaries will test Trump’s future redlines as malleable rhetoric within an otherwise unpredictable foreign policy. But military action is now probable. Referencing the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group in the Middle East, Trump also warned Iran this week to “negotiate a fair and equitable deal — NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS … Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!”

Iran is not going to suspend all nuclear enrichment activities. But Trump is likely banking on the Islamic Republic’s deep economic crisis to restrain it from major retaliation if he orders new strikes specifically targeting its nuclear program. He is probably correct. Military action is likely, though not assured, between Saturday and early next week. Again, however, U.S. action should avoid Khamenei. The obvious risks of targeting Khamenei significantly outweigh the theoretical benefits of doing so.

Some conservative commentators argue otherwise. Fox News’s Mark Levin has been pushing hard for Trump to eliminate........

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