Will ‘Panican’ about the unemployment rate become a thing of the past?
In superb news, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly triple the amount expected. In suboptimal news, the BLS also found in its annual benchmark of data that last year’s economy added only 181,000 jobs instead of the 584,000 initially estimated, amounting to 30,000 monthly job gains across 2025 instead of the preliminary estimate of 49,000.
If this were 2008, such anemic job gains would justify panic. It is no longer 2008, however, and, if anything, both data sets tell the same reassuring story about the contemporary economy: We have no reason yet to fret about mass unemployment.
January’s unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, down from the post-pandemic peak in November of last year. That peak was only 4.5%, still over a full point below the post-World War II average. Job gains can slow down without wreaking havoc........
