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How Trump’s redistricting could backfire

Democratic turnout could overwhelm Trump’s attempts to rig the midterms.

The dust from the first round of the “redistricting wars” — the unusual mid-decade redrawing of congressional maps in search of a partisan edge in the 2026 midterms — is settling, and Republicans have a clear advantage: about 10 congressional seats, give or take. But that clear-cut number obscures something else. While the GOP may have won a momentary victory, there’s potential for redistricting to backfire on Donald Trump and his party, in 2026 and beyond.

Trump kicked off the redistricting wars in 2025 by pressuring Texas lawmakers to redraw the state’s maps to create more likely Republican seats. Since then, seven other Republican states have passed new maps. On the other side of the ledger, only California successfully redrew its maps to benefit Democrats (Virginia voters approved a redistricting measure, only for it to be blocked by Virginia’s state Supreme Court). Democrats also got some good news in Utah, where a court decision created a new Democratic seat.

The Trump-Texas redistricting mess, briefly explained

The redistricting wars are almost over. Here’s the score.

On the whole, the voters who have lost out are largely Democrats in red states, who could soon be without representation on a federal level.

Other voters are feeling disaffected, too. Take Mike Beltran, who runs a smoke shop in Kissimmee, Florida. The sun-baked city outside of Orlando falls within Florida’s 9th District, and it’s a hub for a large and growing Latino population. Florida Republicans recently redrew the district to make it more white, rural, and Republican, in hopes of ousting incumbent Democratic Rep. Darren Soto.

Beltran, who voted both for Soto and Trump in 2024, told Vox that he thinks the Republican-led redistricting was “a little messed up.”

“I think they’re trying to dilute the minority votes, especially the Hispanics and African American votes,” he said.

Beltran........

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