After nearly eight months of stalemate, the United States is finally turning the corner in its war with Iran – or at least that’s how the Trump administration is describing the state of play.

“So we've been in Iran, very powerful country, or they used to be,” President Donald Trump told supporters during an Oct. 12 rally in Youngstown, Ohio. “They’re not powerful anymore.”

Trump’s confidence is reinforced by several recent trends. Iran's economy and the value of its currency are in a dismal state, the flow of crude oil from the Middle East approached prewar levels in September, and there is a growing sentiment among some foreign policy analysts that Tehran is reaching the point where peace on Washington’s terms is preferable to a longer war.

Don’t believe any of it. The Trump administration is allowing premature optimism to further cloud its judgment.

U.S. strategy remains littered with pitfalls and is highly taxing on the men and women ordered to carry it out.

In contrast to what the White House is selling, the United States is no closer to victory now than it was in the summer. Tehran still has leverage at its disposal. 

US 'progress' in Iran war is misleading

To be fair, U.S. officials aren’t wrong to state that more oil is getting out of the Persian Gulf today than earlier in the year. Major oil producers are tapping into alternative pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Others are working with the U.S. Navy to facilitate oil transits through the strait along Oman’s coastline, neutralizing at least some of the fear shippers previously held about Iranian strikes. 

Yet this is not a cost-free proposition. The United States has effectively anointed itself the defender one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints with little to no international........

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