The world changed when Hamas attacked Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, catalyzing devastating conflict throughout the region. But within Israel, political sentiments have changed surprisingly little. 

To some, the attack fulfilled long-term right-wing warnings that Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza would yield disaster; and the attack was incontrovertible proof that Palestinians will never live in peace with Israel. 

Israeli left-wingers, for their part, have long held that a festering military rule over Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and failure to reach peace, would inevitably lead to violent conflagration. For them, Oct. 7 only proved that they had been right all along.

The standoff raises crucial questions. In three years since Oct. 7, how has the attack changed Israeli society? And how will the answer affect upcoming elections in Israel?

The world after Oct. 7

To be sure, there have been cataclysmic changes in Israel, and the Middle East at large, since Oct. 7. The war in Gaza that began that day has become Israel’s longest war. A relatively stable ceasefire with Lebanon from 2006 to 2023 ended when Hezbollah, a Shi’a militia group, fired on Israel the day after Hamas’ attack; after multiple escalations since then, the current ceasefire is precarious. Israel and the U.S. have waged two full-blown wars with Iran, and the Middle East is still threatened by spin-off conflicts. 

The losses Israelis suffered on Oct. 7 and since then have affected the country collectively and profoundly. For two years, many Israelis went from demonstration to demonstration demanding that their government prioritize a deal with Hamas to release Israeli hostages. Hundreds of thousands have spent the last three years in and out of active reserve duty. 

Since 2023, Israel has seen record levels of emigration and growing international isolation. Sixty-one percent of Israelis told pollsters for the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) that the national mood is poor.

Moreover, the destruction of Palestinian life and society, still ongoing, will one day force a terrible reckoning within Israel. 

Attitudes towards a two-state solution

What’s less visible, and more surprising, is what has stayed the same. Israelis’ attitudes towards Palestinians, occupation, and conflict have become more........

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