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What can be expected from the ongoing talks in Islamabad? Odds of resolution remain slim

The initial ceasefire functioned less as a resolution and more as a pause—an opportunity for both sides to recalibrate, while claiming victory.

What is the status of the current war in the Gulf? On one plane, the war persists with unabated brutality; on another, it appears momentarily paused under a fragile ceasefire. At yet another level it is about keeping energy supplies to the world open, anxiously tracking the prices of Brent Crude and Natural Gas amid deteriorating investor confidence.

With some actors talking and others escalating, the conflict defies linear analysis. Is the ceasefire partial or substantive? Will it hold, or fray? And what, if anything, can be expected from the ongoing talks in Islamabad ?

With regards to the military dynamic, two developments must be highlighted. First, the Pakistan-facilitated ceasefire between the United States and Iran has entered its next phase, with direct talks taking place in Islamabad today—a diplomatically significant moment for Pakistan.

What is known is limited yet consequential. Despite agreeing to talk directly, there is no consensus on the ceasefire itself. Washington and Tehran have articulated and pushed divergent interpretations: Iran says it will continue with uranium enrichment, while the United States maintains that no such concessions have been made. The status of Hormuz and Lebanon, too, remains uncertain and divergent.

Second, and perhaps more historic, is the proposal by Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu for direct talks with Lebanon—the first such overture since Israel’s creation in 1948—following an unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign escalated against Hezbollah in the last 24 hours alone. Hezbollah, Iran’s most formidable proxy against Israel had so far been operating as a state within a state. It now appears to be fighting its last war. Remember that the US too has been launching strikes on Shia militias in Iraq. Taken together, the regional dynamics of Levant might change forever.

And the Strait of Hormuz? It continues to exist in a state of paradox—simultaneously open and closed, depending on the vantage point. Iran has insisted on imposing the selective transit fee, a toll of $2 million per barrel which is rejected by the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and yet some ships belonging to Iran’s friendly nations or bound to friendly nations have continued to pass.

The consequences have been far-reaching. On the 40th day, approximately 187 oil tankers and 15 LNG carriers remained stalled,........

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