The violence in Manipur is escalating at an alarming rate. However, no one incident can explain the complexity of the situation. We need to see the whole picture, both from the security angle and the humanitarian picture. 

The Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) report stated that the violence in Manipur accounted for 97% of displacements in South Asia in 2023. 

Three years on, however, the threat of further displacement is imminent. 

Within the security establishment, there are important conversations on whether to treat Manipur as a hybrid ethnic-insurgency-border crisis, while some retired intelligence-linked commentators push much more expansive “proxy war” claims. 

We can say that the Indian intelligence and security agencies appear to look at Manipur through four overlapping frames:

Ethnic civil conflict that has revived insurgent networks

Border-security crisis linked to Myanmar

Arms, narcotics, extortion, and militia mobilisation problem

Possible foreign exploitation, especially through Myanmar-based

The intelligence-security establishment does not see Manipur as a simple communal riot anymore. It sees it as a hybrid internal-security crisis: ethnic violence plus old insurgencies, looted armouries, cross-border sanctuaries, narcotics routes.

The conversations around the “foreign hand” are important in a context but they cannot explain the very real internal divisions within Manipur. Foreign powers can play a serious role only if the internal situation is not brought under control and the people can live in a secure and peaceful atmosphere.

Having said this, in the present scenario the role of foreign interests becomes a factor that needs to be noted, though not over stressed. Especially, since Indian policies, or the lack of it have failed to resolve the Manipur crisis.

Former Army chief General M.M. Naravane said on national television way back  in July 2023 that the involvement of foreign agencies in Manipur “cannot be ruled out”, and specifically referred to Chinese aid to insurgent groups in Northeast as something that had existed for years. He also suggested that some actors may benefit from continued instability and may not want normalcy to return.

Over emphasis on the role of China may also be helpful to the camp of those who want to push India closer to........

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