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The West Asia situation is stuck in a spiral that is spinning out of control. On Saturday, probably for the fifth time after threatening Iran with perdition, US President Donald Trump called off his planned attack which was aimed at Iran’s infrastructure. “I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,” the president wrote on his Truth Social account.

He said he had done so, at the instance of Iran itself and other Middle-eastern countries and because the “perimeters of a deal had been agreed to.” According to him, it would involve the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.” Just how much truth there is in that last sentence is a matter of conjecture.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.

Iran has clearly established a mutual deterrence with the US and it is thereby able to shape American calculations despite the enormous damage it has suffered from US-Israeli bombing since the outset of the war. Notably, Iran has been able to threaten the global economy through its ability to threaten two critical chokepoints, the Hormuz that it is directly controlling and with the Houthis restricting Saudi traffic in the Bab-el-Mandeb.

According to Axios, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman spoke to Trump earlier on Saturday expressing concerns over the American plans. Other regional powers had also pressed the US and Iran to de-escalate. Other reports say that MbS speaking on behalf of the GCC made two implicit warnings: First, that the destroyed GCC would be forced to shift their economies away from the US and the west and second, prohibit the use of their air space and logistical facilities to the US.

“Any hostile action by the U.S. or Israel – or participation or cooperation by regional countries in such actions – would be met with a decisive and proportionate response from Iran’s powerful armed forces,” Iran’s foreign minister Syed Abbas Araghchi said to Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Bin........

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