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Quebec’s Election Is Closing In, and the CAQ Is Still in Trouble

Polls say Fréchette is leading the party toward its worst showing ever

Quebec is headed for an election in October, and things are tightening. A Parti Québécois victory would almost certainly reopen the constitutional question. While the party has moderated some of its rhetoric, its raison d’être remains Quebec independence, making the next election consequential well beyond provincial politics.

According to the latest poll from Pallas Data, the PQ holds the lead with 31 percent of support among decided and leaning voters across the province, four points ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party, which stands at 27 percent. Both parties are up two points from Pallas Data’s previous poll in June—a change that falls well within the poll’s margin of error.

Despite this seemingly narrow gap between the two leading parties, the PQ remains the clear favourite at this stage thanks to its lead among francophone voters (more on this below).

The Coalition Avenir Québec, the governing party, places third with 19 percent support—a disappointing result for a party that had hoped Christine Fréchette’s arrival would completely reset the race. Before being beset by the wear and tear of incumbency, the CAQ built its majority by combining nationalist, centre-right, suburban, and older francophone voters. Support for the CAQ surged almost immediately after Fréchette won the leadership, rising from the 9 percent to 14 percent range (under former head François Legault) to roughly 20 percent in late spring.

This latest Pallas poll, however, suggests that momentum has stalled, with its core groups seemingly now drifting to different parties.

Polls to be released later this month will either confirm or refute this impression, but according to Pallas, there is no indication that the CAQ has managed to significantly narrow the gap with the PQ over the summer. That suggests the CAQ’s........

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