Israelis have perfectly rational reasons to believe they live under existential threat. This is not a matter of exaggeration or political theater; it is a conclusion shaped by centuries of persecution, the trauma of the Holocaust, and the lived experience of a small nation surrounded by adversaries. Jewish historical memory is long, but the modern Israeli sense of vulnerability is anchored in events that remain within living memory. The Holocaust was not simply a tragedy; it was a civilizational rupture that convinced Jews worldwide that their survival could never again depend solely on the goodwill of others. The founding of Israel was therefore not only a political act but a strategic necessity, a response to the near annihilation of a people. When Israelis speak of existential threat, they are not invoking metaphor. They are articulating a worldview shaped by catastrophe.

This worldview was reinforced by the Arab–Israeli wars of 1948, 1967, and 1973. These were not symbolic conflicts. They were wars that reinforced the perception that Israel’s survival could never be taken for granted. Even after the era of large wars with Arab states faded, Israel faced decades of terrorism, rocket fire, suicide bombings, and asymmetric warfare.

The rise of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regional power, its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and other proxies, and its repeated threats to destroy Israel, deepened the sense of encirclement. Then came the horrors of October 7th, followed by the more recent barrages of ballistic missiles, drones, and rockets from Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

For most Israelis, the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon is not merely an abstract proliferation concern but a direct threat to the continued existence of their country. Their fears are grounded in history, geography, and strategic reality.

But the task of serious geopolitical analysis is not to question whether Israeli fears are legitimate. They are. The task is to ask whether that is the full analysis. A fear can be rational and still be only one part of a larger system. Analysts must ask whether other actors also possess legitimate fears, whether those fears shape their behavior, and whether ignoring them creates blind spots that increase the risk of miscalculation. The question is not whether Israelis have existential fears, but whether they are unique in having........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)