The Negotiation Israel Isn’t In

Since February 28, when US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury and killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, the Trump administration has played both sides — threatening to resume bombing if Tehran refuses terms, while simultaneously courting Beijing as a potential mediator. Trump benefits politically whether the war ends through coercion or diplomacy. But Israel holds no such flexibility. It is exposed to every outcome yet present in none of the negotiations now unfolding in Beijing.

The underlying prize is the Strait of Hormuz. With shipping at roughly five per cent of pre-war levels and Iran retaining an estimated seventy per cent of its mobile missile launchers, the strait remains the world’s most consequential chokepoint. Trump needs it open to arrest spiralling US petrol prices and halt his plummeting approval ratings before the 2026 midterms. Xi needs it open because China’s export-led growth model cannot absorb a prolonged energy shock. Both leaders have converging interests. Neither has Israel’s interests as a priority.

The Taiwan-for-Hormuz Bargain

The logic of any deal in Beijing runs along predictable lines. If China leans on Tehran to reopen Hormuz, Washington may need to offer concessions on Taiwan — reduced arms sales, softer rhetoric, or a recalibration of the Indo-Pacific posture. For Israel, this is not a neutral exchange. Every degree of American strategic bandwidth redirected toward managing a Taiwan accommodation is a degree subtracted from the Middle Eastern theatre where Israel’s security architecture depends on US commitment.

The US war in Iran has already cost $29 billion and counting, with estimates projecting a total burden exceeding one trillion dollars. American........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)