With peace talks underway in Islamabad, Iran is preparing to assess the incantatory power of the word “Hormuz” to restore power and extract concessions. Its negotiating position consists of 10 widely publicized, ludicrous points. And while the US administration insists those demands are detached from reality, it also insisted on opening Hormuz as a prerequisite to talks. Yet the strait remains largely sealed to maritime traffic. With uncharacteristic meekness, President Donald Trump objected that Iran “is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.”

However peace talks with the Iranians turn out – and the Iranians have a bazaar merchant’s feral sense of how far they can push their customer – the US has suffered a staggering strategic setback in the region. The questions are why and how. The US experienced few combat losses and seems to have destroyed every target it aimed at. If you could win a war on points, the victory would resound.

The decision to sue for peace stems from soaring gasoline prices, resurgent inflation, cratering political support, and impending midterm elections. Plainly Trump has been informed that the US military is running low on both high-value targets and munitions. Iran’s theocratic-military power blob – the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and whoever currently speaks for Iran’s clerisy – has not fractured and, despite the material losses, remains far stronger than any potential domestic rival.

So the answer to the........

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