The longest and most destructive war in Europe since World War II grinds on remorselessly, exacting a horrendous toll in Russian and Ukrainian lives.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he was apparently confident that his “special military operation” would succeed. Four years on, it has degenerated into an extremely costly war of attrition and shows no sign of ending within the foreseeable future.

Although Russia has captured wide swaths of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine has fought back ferociously, preventing Putin from declaring victory.

On the fourth anniversary of the war, the combatants are far apart regarding their respective demands for a settlement. The latest round of talks between Moscow and Kyiv, brokered by the United States, wrapped up in Geneva last week without a breakthrough.

“The negotiations were not easy,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an understatement.

The chances of significant progress are low.

Zelensky has proposed a ceasefire and a direct meeting with Putin, but Russia has balked, demanding a comprehensive accord before committing to a truce.

Putin’s goals have not changed since his unprovoked act of imperialist aggression: Ukraine must renounce its hope of joining the NATO alliance, sharply reduce the size of its army, align itself with Russia’s geopolitical interests, and protect Russian language and culture in Ukraine.

In addition, Putin wants to annex the occupied territories.

Today, Russia occupies almost 20 percent of Ukraine: the Crimea peninsula, most of the eastern Donbas region, much of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and slivers of four other areas.

While Ukraine demands the return of the occupied areas, Putin and his advisors believe that Ukraine — an integral component of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991 — is an artificial entity and rightfully belongs to Russia.

It is an assumption that the vast majority of Ukrainians and their friends and sympathizers abroad staunchly reject.

True to his convictions, Putin believes that time is on his side and that he can prevail. His reasoning is clear. He has a bigger army, current Western support will diminish, and Ukrainian military resistance will ultimately crumble.

To a degree, Putin’s calculations may well be correct.

The United States, Ukraine’s most ardent ally during the presidency of Joe Biden, has altered its policy, much to Ukraine’s detriment. No longer can Ukraine depend on the constant flow of US weapons and financial support, which enabled it to hold its own on the battlefield.

Biden’s mercurial successor, Donald Trump, has adopted what is arguably a policy of neutrality, which has unsettled and upset US allies in Europe. He has cozied up to Putin, whom he admires as a strong and able leader. And he has pulled the plug on direct US aid to Ukraine and forced it to buy American weapons and munitions through NATO countries such as Britain, France and Germany. It is debatable whether the European “coalition of the willing” can supplant the United States as a reliable arms supplier.

Trump once vowed to end the war in a single day, but he has patently failed to achieve this pie-in-the-sky objective. In frustration, he has lashed out at both Zelensky and Putin since his inauguration more than a year ago.

While he has criticized Zelensky’s negotiating tactics, he has sometimes appeared more sympathetic to Ukraine, especially after Russian drone and ballistic missile barrages have damaged or destroyed critical infrastructure and apartment buildings. Occasionally, he has reached out to Putin as a potential ally, angering Democrats and some Republicans.

Trump’s failure to settle the war by diplomatic means can be mainly attributed to Putin’s stubborn reluctance to give up territorial gains.

Within a month of its invasion, Russia had captured 26 percent of Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. These areas included Crimea, which pro-Russian separatist forces seized in 2014, and vast segments of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Shortly afterward, Ukraine pushed Russia out of the northern cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv, leaving Russia in control of 20 percent of Ukrainian lands. Later that year, Ukraine expanded its offensive, compelling Russia to withdrew east of the Dnipro River. This retreat left Russia controlling about 17 percent of Ukraine.

In the last three years, Russia has struggled to advance. As Russian troops have inched forward and consolidated their control of 19.3 percent of Ukraine, they have suffered staggering losses.

Ukraine estimates that 418,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded last year, bringing total Russian casualties to just over 1.25 million.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies believes that at least 325,000 Russian troops have fallen since February 24, 2022. In a report, the center says, “These numbers are extraordinary. No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of fatalities in any war since World War II.”

Zelensky said recently that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far. The figure may be far higher, in the opinion of analysts. Thousands of civilians have been killed as well.

What is clear after four years of bloodshed is that Russia has failed to subdue Ukraine, despite assistance from North Korea, Iran and China. North Korea has dispatched thousands of troops and artillery shells. Iran has provided drones and drone technology. China has sent machine tools and chips.

Alluding to Putin’s predicament, President Emmanuel Macron of France has described the war as “a triple failure for Russia: military, economic, and strategic.”

In his view, the war has strengthened NATO, with Finland and Sweden having joined the alliance, “the very expansion Russia sought to prevent.” The war, he added, has weakened Russia’s economy and “laid bare the fragility of an imperialism from another age.”

The bottom line is that Russia is mired in a war that could last for years. As the Institute for the Study of War said on February 25, “The fifth year of Russia’s invasion is not beginning well for Moscow. Recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield disprove Russian claims that things can only get worse for Ukraine the longer Kyiv delays surrendering to Russian demands. Battlefield realities … show that continued significant Russian battlefield gains, let alone total victory, are not inevitable.”

Yet Putin is bent on winning this interminable war, no matter the cost in Russian and Ukrainian lives and treasure.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)