The Iranian regime is attempting to expand the war in Iran beyond its borders to drive up the economic and political costs for the United States and its Arab allies.

It is a risky strategy, but Iran seems bent on pursuing it. And as Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, said the other day, Iran appears to have prepared itself for a prolonged war in the hope that it can outlast its adversaries.

Iran’s most important consideration, first and foremost, is sheer survival, regardless of the suffering it endures as U.S. and Israeli aircraft pummel its military infrastructure and kill its leaders from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on down.

Responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian curtly dismissed it on March 7. “That’s a dream that they should take to their grave,” he said contemptuously.

Bent on muddling through this existential crisis, the worst since the formation of the Islamic regime in 1979, Iran is hopeful that its retaliatory ballistic missile and drone strikes at U.S. bases in the Middle East and at Israel will cause enough material damage and anxiety to shorten the war.

Since February 28, the first day of the conflict, Iran has launched daily attacks against Israeli cities, American bases in Arab Gulf countries like Kuwait and Bahrain, and an oil and gas refinery in Saudi Arabia.

Iran has also lashed out at Jordan, Azerbaijan and Turkey, all of which have close relations with the United States.

Iran, too, has reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passes.

Iran’s intention is clear: to cause angst and pain in Israel, to convince Americans that this is a war of choice rather than necessity, to disrupt Persian Gulf economies, and to increase energy prices in the West.

It remains to be seen whether Iran’s strategy will work, but already oil prices have risen significantly.

In addition, Iran is attempting to ensure that the United States and Israel will run out of highly expensive missile interceptors so that they are compelled to scale back their punishing air strikes. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in turn, are trying to destroy Iranian missile launchers, caches of missiles and communication sites as fast as possible.

The bottom line is that the war has become “a test of wills and stamina,” says Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran at the Johns Hopkins School of International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the International Crisis Group, told The New York Times that the Iranian regime seeks to create enough discontent in the United States so that the Trump administration will prematurely declare victory and halt its unprecedented joint offensive with Israel.

Trump has vowed to fight for at least four to six weeks, but he may well pack it in sooner or later, depending on what happens in the near future.

U.S. objectives remain clear. As Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said, “President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

Interestingly enough, Kelly made no reference to Trump’s recent promise that he would help the Iranian people get rid of Iran’s repressive regime, which killed at least 7,000 street protesters in January.

As the war entered its second week yesterday, Iran continued to pummel Israel and Arab states. By one estimate, Iran has launched more than 1,000 missiles and drones since February 28.

Iranian projectiles have destroyed an undetermined number of buildings in Israel and killed 10 Israelis and foreigners. Israel’s missile defence batteries have shot down around 90 percent of the missiles and drones

Sixty percent of Iran’s strikes have targeted Gulf countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank.

Iranian missiles and drones have struck military bases, oil and gas facilities, airports, U.S. embassies, apartment blocs and hotels. These attacks have killed more than a dozen people.

Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, told the media recently that Iran’s missile and drone barrages have dropped by 90 percent and 83 percent respectively in recent days due to the United States’ and Israel’s success in destroying Iranian launchers and missile storage warehouses.

Iran’s fury has spared not even Oman, which mediated the last three rounds of Iran’s unsuccessful talks with the United States.

Oman has had cordial relations with Iran, but its military cooperation with the United States has infuriated the Iranian regime. Iran claims that the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier, docked in the Omani port of Duqm before heading into battle.

Saudi Arabia, which signed a friendship treaty with Iran in 2023, has been in Iran’s crosshairs as well. Iranian drones have crashed into the Ras Tantura oil refinery and the U.S. embassy in Riyadh.

The United Arab Emirates and Qatar, both of which have close ties with the United States, have been targeted too.

So far, the Gulf states have not retaliated. But recently, the Gulf Cooperation Council warned Iran that it reserves the right to respond in self-defence.

The United States has long maintained major air and naval bases in the Arab world.

The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the largest U.S. base in the Middle East. The headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet is in Bahrain. The Ali Al Salem Air Base, the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and the Al Dhafra Air Base are respectively situated in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

They host fighter jets, surveillance aircraft, tankers and drones capable of striking Iran or supporting strikes.

This, of course, is a politically sensitive and unacknowledged issue because these Arab states fear the wrath of Iran. Nonetheless, the assumption is that some U.S. aircraft took off from these Arab support and staging bases to attack Iran.

To no one’s surprise, Iran issued a warning that any country that allowed U.S. forces to use its territory or airspace would be treated as a legitimate target.

The Washington Post has reported that Russia has conveyed intelligence information to Iran to support its attacks against U.S. forces in Arab lands.

On March 7, Pezeshkian — a member of the council governing Iran since Khamenei’s death — apologized for attacks on “neighboring countries.” But even as he spoke, Iranian missiles and drones rained down on the Gulf states, casting doubt on his authority and prompting Trump to threaten Iran with yet more devastating air strikes.

As the Iranian regime reels under the impact of U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran’s propaganda machine claims effusively, in Persian, Arabic and English, that Iran is winning the war, and that its operations have left “military experts in awe.”

Now that the Israeli Air Force has bombed Iran’s state television and radio broadcaster, Iran will be hard-pressed to make these patently false claims. But as long as its military supplies last, Iran will continue to bombard Israel and the Arab Gulf states, thereby extending the length of the war.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)