Before rushing toward a confrontation between the United States and Iran, it is worth pausing to consider the consequences — not only the conduct of the conflict itself, but the regional order that would emerge the day after.

Rather than being swayed by declarations and rhetorical noise, we should examine the underlying interests and the real diplomatic vectors at play. Even if Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia publicly express concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and support diplomatic arrangements, in practice they could emerge stronger from an Iranian defeat — potentially deepening their alignment with a Chinese or multipolar axis rather than with Washington.

This concern calls for careful strategic thinking: how to compel Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions without simultaneously strengthening rival camps to the United States.

To achieve this,........

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