Yesterday, I introduced a model for reading the American midterm elections as a chain of consequences: new evidence changes a political trend; the trend moves particular races. Those races determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate; and control changes what Washington can do. This is the first full update.

The strongest signal is still the cost of living. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, 47 percent of registered voters called it the single most important factor in their vote. Seventy-one percent disapproved of President Donald Trump’s handling of it.  The war with Iran now adds a second risk. Only one-quarter of Americans told Reuters/Ipsos that the war was worthwhile, while an earlier Ipsos poll found 83 percent expected extended American involvement. That does not prove a shift toward Democrats, it does mean that war, prices and confidence in government are becoming harder to separate.

The House remains the chamber most likely to change hands. Republicans began this election cycle with 220 seats and Democrats with 215, so Democrats need a net gain of three (Republicans: 220-3=217, Democrats: 215 3=218.)  Several Republican-held districts in Florida, Michigan and Texas have recently moved toward greater competitiveness in major race ratings. My assessment is: close, with a modest Democratic opportunity.  The Senate is different: Republicans hold 53 seats; Democrats and two aligned independents hold 47. Democrats therefore need four net gains. Inside Elections moved New Hampshire and Ohio to........

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