The ink on the newly signed memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is barely dry. President Trump and Iranian officials have agreed to terms that promise to instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Global markets are breathing a sigh of relief as tankers prepare to resume normal operations. The diplomatic establishment in Washington views the agreement as a successful deescalation of a conflict that recently triggered a $25 billion global trade crisis. That sense of relief represents a profound strategic mistake.

The temporary blockade of the Persian Gulf demonstrated the terrifying fragility of the global supply chain. A single geopolitical dispute successfully choked off a waterway that handles roughly 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20 percent of its liquefied natural gas. For India, the stakes were truly existential. With approximately 50 percent of its crude oil and up to 85 percent of its LPG arriving through that narrow passage, the disruption threatened to paralyze the domestic economy.

Signing a document in Switzerland or Washington guarantees absolutely nothing. An agreement holding the global economy hostage to the goodwill of a regional power merely delays the next inevitable crisis. Indian policymakers recognize the immense danger of returning to the status quo. The panic surrounding the Hormuz closure proved that relying on traditional maritime routes constitutes strategic negligence. New........

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