Trump’s misfire: The electric car takeover is now unstoppable

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The world market for electric vehicles is moving into the parabolic phase of the technology S-curve, the critical stage where disruption moves with lightning speed and the mathematical compound effect demolishes the old order.

“Once you reach 5 per cent or 10 per cent, it takes off. The next stop is 30 per cent and suddenly you are on the way to 80 per cent,” said Kingsmill Bond, energy director at Ember and the man who coined the term “electrotech”.

New energy vehicles in China – EVs and plug-in hybrids – captured a record 61.4 per cent of total sales in April even though they are no longer exempt from purchase tax.

Sales of petrol and diesel cars crashed by 37 per cent from a year earlier, early evidence of the fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

We are all used to eye-watering figures from China by now. The more striking story is what is happening in the rest of the world, off the radar screen of American and European media.

Trump’s war has been a gift to an industry he detests

Sales of EVs surpassed 63 per cent of the overall car market in Singapore last year, up from 3 per cent in 2020. The early evidence for April and May suggests the figure may already be near two-thirds.

This is worth watching because the flourishing city-state is a bellwether of global positioning, a litmus test of whether the non-aligned world is pivoting towards Chinese electrotech or sticking with America’s fossil fuel regime.

The core message of the International Energy Agency’s new report on the global EV industry is that the switch accelerated last year – despite the idiosyncratic counter-trend story in the US – and spread fastest in emerging markets.

Sales doubled across........

© The Sydney Morning Herald