India’s economic story has reached an unusual turning point. For years, policymakers focused on removing the structural bottlenecks that discouraged private investment. Public sector banks were recapitalised, bad loans were cleaned up, infrastructure spending gathered pace, corporate tax rates were lowered and targeted manufacturing incentives were introduced. By most conventional measures, the ecosystem for private capital has become considerably stronger. Yet the expected surge in corporate investment has not materialised. The explanation lies beyond corporate balance sheets.

Businesses are no longer constrained primarily by access to finance; they are constrained by uncertainty. Companies making investments that will generate returns over two or three decades must evaluate not just today’s demand but tomorrow’s risks. The global economy offers little reassurance on that front. The prolonged geopolitical instability in West Asia has once again highlighted India’s vulnerability to imported energy shocks. Protectionist trade policies are reshaping global supply chains, while currency volatility and fluctuating capital flows have made long-term financial planning more difficult. Simultaneously, rapid advances in artificial intelligence are disrupting established business models across........

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