India has been given a number that should command attention: as many as 15,800 additional heat-related deaths could occur between September 2026 and February 2027 if the exceptionally strong El Niño now developing produces the projected temperature anomalies. The estimate comes from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. It is not a forecast of certain deaths, and the underlying analysis has not yet been peer-reviewed. But dismissing it because the precise number may change would miss the point. The real warning is not about arithmetic. It is about preparedness.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but its consequences are no longer experienced against a stable climatic background. Global warming has raised the baseline from which extreme temperatures occur. An unusually strong El Niño can therefore turn an already dangerous heat environment into something considerably more lethal. What looks like a meteorological event can rapidly become a public-health, economic and labour crisis. India is vulnerable because exposure to heat is closely connected to livelihood. A salaried office worker with air-conditioning and........

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