What a week. A prime minister on the skids. A pretender to the throne resigning. The favourite putting his career on the line on what is likely to be, without question, the biggest by-election in British political history. Never has there been a straight-up contest to decide the next prime minister, with the most popular mayor up against the best political campaigner of the age, Nigel Farage, trying to run interference. Most of SW1 is already studying train times to Wigan.

That hurdle cleared, the only question is who will be prime minister by the time of Labour’s party conference? And I have to tell you, Keir Starmer is not the outside bet here.

ANDY BURNHAM: 48 per centThe Manchester mayor is running – with the National Executive Committee (NEC) this evening approving him to be considered as a candidate for the Makerfield seat vacated by Josh Simons. It’s basically a coin flip, since Burnham has strong local popularity in the area and might attract Green voters who want to see a more left-wing Labour party. There might also be some Tories who would vote tactically to keep Reform out. But Farage’s party was second in 2024 and romped to victory in all eight wards of the Makerfield seat up for grabs in last week’s council elections.

The Manchester Labour party will be out in force, but Reform will chuck the kitchen sink at this. Reform had 50 activists out working the Makerfield seat today, with hundreds more expected tomorrow. The local branch is viewed as one of its stronger ones, with plenty of voting intentions collected already. Reform’s candidate is expected to have been chosen by Sunday, giving the party a head start ahead of Labour. Until we see which way the votes are breaking, it’s even money.

The voters of Makerfield should give Burnham the boot

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While Burnham will have problems in an area that is very Brexity and takes a dim view of immigration, extended exposure to working-class views on these matters might cause him to adopt less hard-left ones, which would put him in a better place with the country.

Since Burnham is a Remainer in a heavily Leave........

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