Just as Britain’s economy looked to be ‘turning a corner’, it may be about to slam into a wall.

The warning signs were obvious last week. On Monday, I’m told, the ship insurer Lloyd’s of London saw its ‘war desk’ hit its annual sales target within the first two hours of trading. As you read this email, the Chancellor will meet with the Lloyd’s chair to come up with a plan to support shipping amid the continuing war in the Middle East.

Today, though, turmoil in the market has accelerated. As Asian markets opened overnight, the price of crude surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. By the time the opening bell rang in London the dominoes were already falling: traders piled into stagflation bets, gilt yields rose on fears of another inflationary wave and talk of interest-rate cuts quickly gave way to expected hikes.

Donald Trump, on Truth Social, said we should not worry and that normal prices will return soon. If they don’t, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have cause to be genuinely fearful. After clocking that economic growth is a lot easier said than done in Britain, the........

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