Speaking on the sidelines of the Brics summit in Delhi last week, Vladimir Putin once again insisted that Russia had no plans to attack Europe. ‘There is no such threat and never has been. We do not threaten, nor do we intend to threaten, European countries. Why should we?’ the Russian president said.

And yet, in the weeks after Germany publicly blamed Russia for a series of drone attacks on Leipzig airports earlier in the summer and a Russian drone struck a Ukrainian train carrying former prime minister Boris Johnson just over a mile from the border with Poland, the evidence suggests that the Russian threat to Europe – and the Nato alliance – is growing. Indeed, the CIA chief John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow late last month, reportedly to warn Kremlin officials against carrying out any escalatory attacks against Ukraine’s Baltic allies. 

The problem for the Norwegian authorities on Svalbard is that they are increasingly at risk of losing control over who arrives and leaves the archipelago

The problem for the Norwegian authorities on Svalbard is that they are increasingly at risk of losing control over who arrives and leaves the archipelago

In the aftermath of Ratcliffe’s visit, talk yet again turned to the threat posed to Poland and the Baltic states bordering Russia. The chatter has focused on the Suwalki Gap between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, and on potential false flag and grey zone attacks designed to weaken the resolve of the allies supporting Ukraine in fending off Putin’s invasion.

But what if the threat posed by Russia were to come from further north, up in the Arctic circle? What if the Norwegian-controlled archipelago of Svalbard is where Putin is seeking to exploit a weakness in Nato’s armoured carapace and test out the strength of the alliance’s pledge of mutual defence?

It is this question which hovers over most of the third series of the BBC show Vigil, the finale of which aired last night.........

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