In declaring an extension to the ceasefire in the Iran war, President Trump signalled clearly enough that he would prefer to strike a peace deal with Tehran. J.D. Vance, the vice-president, has been kicking his heels, waiting to return to the Pakistani capital Islamabad for another go at achieving a breakthrough. The Iranians keep blowing hot and cold on whether they are ready to play their part. Trump suggested in a social media post earlier this week that he believes this is because Iran’s government is ‘seriously fractured’. His ceasefire extension is aimed at allowing the regime time to deliver a new proposal.

Trump may want to hammer everything out in Islamabad, but he is not dealing with an ordinary government operating under a straightforward power structure. At the last round of talks in Islamabad, Tehran was represented by its foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and the parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The Americans believe Ghalibaf, in particular, to be a significant force in Iran. He may well be an important figure, and one of the highest-ranking officials to escape assassination, but he is not the........

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