US President Trump has what he so dearly craves – the attention of the global media and the world hanging on his every word. As time ticks down to Donald’s deadline, after which he is threatening to commit war crimes on an unprecedented scale against the Iranian people, the gap for negotiations narrows and the likelihood of a US ground invasion into Iran widens. We should be honest about the talks’ chances of success: very low. At present it is likely that negotiators are seeking only to find common ground, however thin, from which a pause in fighting can be agreed upon. We are talking here about the very foothills of a framework of an agreement. A million metaphorical miles from a deal that will satisfy the White House’s desire for ‘the big one’. And for all that oil.

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There is simply no chance that Iran would begin any negotiation in the middle of a war by offering up its oil and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Firstly, because that is its most important card, and secondly, because they feel confident that they can exhaust the US’s missile defences in the region, drive a wedge between the US, Israel and the Gulf, and ultimately........

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