The Danger of Declaring ‘Once and for All’ in the Middle East

By Thomas L. Friedman

I’ve been ambivalent about this war against Iran — to say the least. While nothing would improve the Middle East more than a decent government taking power in Tehran, I seriously doubt that simply pulverizing Iran from the air can generate that change. I wish President Trump had consulted someone other than his gut before he pulled the trigger.

Maybe I can best explain my position by sharing a few rules that have long guided me in covering this region.

Rule No. 1: The four most dangerous words in the Middle East are “once and for all,” as in, Israel or America is going to end a threat militarily from (fill in the blank) “once and for all.”

I stated this rule in a column on Oct. 16, 2023, nine days after the Hamas attack on Israel, as the Israeli government contemplated retaliation. The only way to eliminate a military threat once and for all is through force plus politics — by creating better, self-sustaining leadership on the other side. This is hugely complicated and always requires political compromises on your side.

Consider the limits of assassinations as a once-and-for-all tool. I have watched the Israelis kill three generations of Hamas leaders. The first generation consisted of the movement’s founders, who were eliminated in the 1990s and early 2000s. These included the chief bomb maker Yahya Ayyash (“the Engineer”), who was killed in 1996; Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Hamas’s spiritual leader, who was assassinated in 2004; and Abdel Aziz Rantisi, Yassin’s immediate successor, who was killed about a month after him.

A new tier of leaders then emerged, focusing on turning Hamas from a militant group into a governing organization with a sophisticated rocket arsenal. These included Said Seyam, Ahmed Jabari and Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, all eventually assassinated by Israel.

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Thomas L. Friedman is the foreign affairs Opinion columnist. He joined the paper in 1981 and has won three Pulitzer Prizes. He is the author of seven books, including “From Beirut to Jerusalem,” which won the National Book Award. @tomfriedman • Facebook

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