Why the Iran War Is Pushing Europe Closer to US LNG

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The Iran war’s disruptions to LNG supply are accelerating Europe’s reliance on US gas—solving near-term shortages but creating new long-term dependency risks.

The European natural gas market entered the summer injection season under an unusually complex and fragile supply outlook, as geopolitical shocks and structural changes in the liquified natural gas (LNG) and natural gas complex reshaped expectations regarding storage filling rates and price formation. The European Union’s plan to reach a 90 percent storage target faces serious feasibility risks under these fragile supply conditions. Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s infrastructure and the disruption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have removed a significant portion of flexible LNG supply from the global market, indicating that achieving the storage target will become even more difficult.

Qatar Disruptions and the Limits of Supply Diversification

Qatar, as one of the world’s largest LNG exporters after the United States, plays a critical role in global supply. The closure of the Strait and the attacks during this period significantly reduced fleet traffic, and due to damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, it was announced that the country’s LNG export capacity would face long-term losses of approximately 17 percent, around 12.8 million tons per year. According to 2025 data, Qatar’s share in the European Union’s total LNG imports is approximately 8.2 percent. Although this share is limited compared to other major suppliers, Europe’s strategy of using LNG as a balancing element after the pipeline gas era has created vulnerability with the disruption of this flow. According to the EU plan, imports under short-term Russian LNG contracts will stop as of April 25, 2026, and short-term pipeline gas contracts will be cut as of June 17, 2026. The termination of long–term LNG contracts will take place on January 1, 2027, and........

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