Noah Eliot Vanderhoeven, Western University

Polymarket, a U.S.-based prediction-market website, is taking wagers on who will be London, Ont.’s next mayor. There are also markets for Toronto, Windsor and even Stratford.

The past two years have seen commercial prediction markets move from a niche forecasting tool into mainstream finance, allowing users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events ranging from elections to economic indicators.

A 2024 U.S. federal court ruling allowing regulated prediction markets to offer contracts on political outcomes helped accelerate the growth of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

As these markets become more visible and their election forecasts reach wider audiences, questions are emerging about what their growth could mean for public health and democratic life.

Legalized gambling and public health

Because prediction markets package real-time wagering in the language of trading rather than betting, researchers have argued that they function as an emerging and largely unregulated form of gambling.

Their structural features — rapid feedback, round-the-clock access and engagement-optimized design — may carry the same addiction and financial-harm risks long associated with sports betting and other high-frequency wagering products.

A well-established body of addiction research on legalized gambling raises public health concerns as online gambling becomes easier to access across digital technologies. Similar concerns have emerged following the expansion of online sports gambling.

Since the 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision allowing states to........

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