TO all intents and purposes, the border poll issue wasn’t really taken all that seriously between 1998 and 2015.

Fair enough, the SDLP didn’t abandon the new Ireland language of John Hume, and Sinn Féin threw out random dates for both the poll and unity in much the same way that buns are thrown to placate a bear.

Yet both parties accepted that a poll was probably a long, long way down the road.

But, as Harold McMillan noted over 60 years ago, it is “events, dear boy, events” – usually unexpected – which change the dynamics of a debate.

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In terms of the border poll debate there were four specific events which changed the dynamics. Not, perhaps, to the extent of guaranteeing a united Ireland any time soon, but certainly making it harder to ignore the criteria – or lack of them – for the initial poll.

The Brexit referendum in 2016 turned UK politics upside down. It also turned the UK-Irish relationship upside down.

The Yes victory didn’t require unionist votes in Northern Ireland to get it over the line, but it did leave unionists in a difficult position; not least when it became clear that NI would be a bargaining chip in EU-UK negotiations, with unionists realising their interests........

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