In Beijing, Trump easily holds the winning hand

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are meeting in Beijing. It is Trump’s first visit to Beijing this term, and their first encounter since they met in South Korea in October.

When the two men look across the table at each other, their advisers silently arrayed by their sides, each will almost certainly think that he is holding all the cards. But Xi holds a losing hand.

Xi is likely to walk into his meeting with Trump buoyed by the belief that America has come to him, showing itself to be a weakened and declining power, facing a stalemate in Iran and Ukraine and deteriorating relations with Europe and Africa. His advisors — who serve to implement his vision and reinforce his thinking — will fortify his perception that time is on China’s side.

In Beijing’s view, the Global Financial Crisis, the polarization of American politics and accompanying political violence, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, are proof of the failure of the U.S. and the Western democratic system.

Xi also enters the summit convinced that China is on the rise — a fact reflected in global polls that show China and the U.S. now running neck and neck in favorability compared to a few years ago.  In Beijing, advisors have likely calculated that Xi’s best bet is to play up to Trump’s appreciation of pomp and flattery, including offers to reduce the trade deficit through agriculture purchases, Boeing Jets and energy. 

Xi has reasons to extend China’s strategic pause in rhetoric and escalatory actions — especially on trade, Taiwan, and the South China Sea — that started in Busan.  He may well seek to keep Trump distracted through a series of dialogue proposals that lead nowhere, as China has successfully done through the decades on narcotics, human rights, arms control and, more recently, artificial intelligence. Look for Xi to suggest renewed talks on all or some of these subjects, a strategy that amounts to Lilliputian threads to tie down the Gulliver of the........

© The Hill